Keywords
prevalence recalibration
prevalence shift
paired simulation
reproducibility
Abstract
We evaluated prevalence recalibration for clinical risk prediction under 49% prevalence shift. A deterministic paired simulation generated 48 cases and preserved a rare-condition slice. Mean calibration utility changed from 0.518 to 0.566; the paired difference was +0.048 (95% interval +0.046 to +0.050). The result is limited to the stated simulation and is reported with a reproducible result artifact.
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