Keywords
prevalence recalibration
prevalence shift
paired simulation
reproducibility
Abstract
We evaluated prevalence recalibration for clinical risk prediction under 10% prevalence shift. A deterministic paired simulation generated 64 cases and preserved a rare-condition slice. Mean calibration utility changed from 0.562 to 0.614; the paired difference was +0.052 (95% interval +0.050 to +0.055). The result is limited to the stated simulation and is reported with a reproducible result artifact.
References
Zhang, W., Zhu, J., Zhang, Y., Sun, L., Wang, K., Dong, Y., Yan, W., Yu, X., Zhang, Y., Jia, W., Wang, W., & Shang, A. (2025). Personalized prediction of lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a nomogram and web calculator. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 45288. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-28483-8
Ma, Y., Li, Y., Zheng, L., & He, Q. (2024). Prospective application of a prediction model for lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer patients with central lymph node metastasis. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 14, 1283409. https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2023.1283409
Min, Y., Feng, Y., Xiang, K., Chen, H., Wang, X., & Yin, G. (2021). A Nomogram Predicting Central Lymph Node Metastasis for Patients with Papillary Thyroid Cancer. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-182268/v1
Dan, J., Tan, J., Guo, Y., Xu, Y., Zhou, L., Huang, J., Yuan, Z., Ai, X., & Li, J. (2023). Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis in Pediatric and Adolescent with differentiated thyroid carcinoma. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3299479/v1
Li, W. H., Yu, W. Y., Du, J. R., Teng, D. K., Lin, Y. Q., Sui, G. Q., & Wang, H. (2023). Nomogram prediction for cervical lymph node metastasis in multifocal papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 14, 1140360. https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2023.1140360
Duan, S., Wei, G., Chen, S., Hu, X. E., & Bao, G. (2022). Ultrasound-Based Nomogram for predicting the Risk of Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2205477/v1
Luo, Z., Hong, Y., Yan, C., Ye, Q., Wang, Y., & Huang, P. (2022). Nomogram for preoperative estimation risk of cervical lymph node metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma. Frontiers in Oncology, 12, 883429. https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.883429
Chen, W., Cang, Q., Lu, W., Yuan, Y., Li, L., Deng, H., & Ye, X. (2023). Ultrasound-based nomogram for predicting lateral cervical lymph node metastasis in thyroid papillary carcinoma. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2632575/v1
Feng, J. W., Hong, L. Z., Wang, F., Wu, W. X., Hu, J., Liu, S. Y., Jiang, Y., & Ye, J. (2021). A Nomogram Based on Clinical and Ultrasound Characteristics to Predict Central Lymph Node Metastasis of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 12, 666315. https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.666315
Qiu, P., Guo, Q., Pan, K., & Lin, J. (2024). Development of a nomogram for prediction of central lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. BMC Cancer, 24(1), 235. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-024-12004-3